Monday, August 01, 2005

Red State on '08

From Red State on the 2008 Republicans.

Here's this week's 2008 presidential rankings:
1. US Sen. George Allen (Virginia)
2. Gov. Mike Huckabee (Arkansas)
3. US Sen. John McCain (Arizona)
4. US Sen. Sam Brownback (Kansas)
5. Gov. Tim Pawlenty (Minnesota)

In terms of the popular political rhetoric of the present, which will obviously change - perhaps dramatically - between now and the primary, most of the attacks on Republicans that actually resonate with voters simply don't apply to Pawlenty. He has said that he believes it's possible to be opinionated and strong in your beliefs without being a jerk, and that's precisely what Pawlenty has attempted to do while in office. He faces a re-election battle in 2006 that he could theoretically lose if the backlash against the government shutdown comes his way, but with progressives in Minnesota often split between the DFL and a third party, Pawlenty seems reasonably assured to win re-election. The only problem is that, in running for re-election, Pawlenty may be put on the spot when it comes to some national issues like the war in Iraq, gun control, and abortion - all of which could prove damaging, since the electorate in Minnesota is quite different than that of a Republican presidential primary. Mitt Romney is learning this lesson the hard way right now.

It’s interesting that Mitt Romney didn’t even make the Top 5, but Pawlenty did. Personally, I find Romney annoying, arrogant, and undeserving of any mention in 2008. If you ever read the Note, and I suggest that you do if you can't afford the Hotline, you will find Romney’s name peppered throughout the daily tip sheet whenever 2008 is mentioned. After reading this, I’m beginning to get the idea that only the Note and Romney think he has a shot in ’08.

Conventional wisdom says that a US Senator cannot be elected President, as we saw through the Kerry candidacy. Allen was a popular conservative governor before heading across the river to DC, so he remains competitive, McCain is liked by liberals and moderates, so he remains competitive. Brownback is as good as done. The theme throughout the top five is Southern Senator/Governor, which would maybe give Pawlenty a shot at second banana on any ticket. The question is, does he want it?

The lesson here is that just because David Strom says someone's future is over, doesn't make it so. His opinion has no more value than mine or yours.

UPDATE: GOP Wingman has a great post on Strom's inability to think forward (link).


At 4:44 PM, Anonymous Stan the Caddy said...

'08 will be interesting as the GOP will have a field where they can come out with a strong ticket that will sure to be misunderestimated. This all comes as the Dems will be fighting with eachother over who should be there nominee, take John Kerry cornering Mark Dayton on the Senate florr over comments about Hillary. As they are doing this the GOP field can swoop in!!!!!

At 9:20 AM, Blogger Kevin from Minneapolis said...

I love the way you bash the trollish David Strom. Talk about a guy with an image problem!

At 11:34 AM, Blogger Republican Minnesota said...

Strom is relevant only because Pawlenty signed the pledge. Now that Pawlenty isn't signing it again, Strom will say or do anything to stay relevant.


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